As of September 23, 2026, forecasters confirm an El Niño event in the tropical Pacific. While El Niño strongly shapes global weather, European impacts are typically weaker and vary by season and by country. National meteorological services advise treating possible effects in Spain, Portugal, France, and the UK as changes in probabilities rather than certainties. (metoffice.gov.uk)

Understanding El Niño’s effects

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It alters tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation, which can shift weather patterns far from the Pacific through atmospheric “teleconnections.” Over Europe, those links exist but are comparatively modest and can be overridden by other drivers such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the state of the polar vortex. (weather.metoffice.gov.uk)

What national services say for 2026–27

UK: The Met Office notes that during El Niño, the odds can tilt toward wetter, stormier conditions for northwestern Europe, including the UK, in autumn and early winter, though Europe’s weather still depends on competing drivers. Expect uncertainty—and keep up with forecasts and warnings. (metoffice.gov.uk)

France: Météo-France reports that El Niño’s influence over Europe is generally limited and clearest in boreal winter. Signals for France are subtle and can be masked by other patterns; current guidance emphasizes monitoring rather than assuming specific outcomes. (meteofrance.com)

Spain: AEMET research syntheses indicate ENSO links to Spain are seasonally dependent (notably in late winter/early spring), non‑stationary across decades, and can be modified by other patterns; any signal should be treated as a probability shift, not a deterministic forecast. (aemet.es – Informe sobre el estado del clima de España 2021, Anexo D: ENSO)

Portugal: IPMA advises that El Niño’s effects in Portugal are not direct or statistically significant; ENSO’s influence over Europe is often mediated by North Atlantic patterns such as the NAO, and predictability remains limited. IPMA will continue to monitor and update as needed. (ipma.pt – Atualização El‑Niño 2026–2027; dataclima.ipma.pt – Influência do ENSO em Portugal)

Travel implications

For trips to Spain, Portugal, France, or the UK from late 2026 into early 2027, build flexibility into plans. Stormier spells and heavy rain are possible at times—especially in the UK and parts of northwestern Europe—but impacts will vary by region and week. Always check official, local forecasts and hazard warnings before and during travel. (metoffice.gov.uk)

How to prepare

• Monitor national services: UK Met Office, Météo-France, Spain’s AEMET, and Portugal’s IPMA for updated outlooks and any weather warnings.
• Plan for changeable conditions in autumn–winter: pack waterproof layers and allow time buffers for transport.
• If your itinerary includes flood‑prone or storm‑exposed areas, identify alternatives and verify cancellation policies.

Bottom line

El Niño in 2026 raises the chances of specific patterns in parts of Europe, but outcomes for Spain, Portugal, France, and the UK remain uncertain and can change with other climate drivers. Use authoritative, up‑to‑date forecasts to fine‑tune plans as your travel dates approach. (metoffice.gov.uk)

Sources

• Met Office – El Niño declared for 2026 as Pacific warms
• Met Office – An ‘unprecedented’ El Niño and its implications for the weather forecast
• Météo‑France – Le phénomène El Niño s’intensifie : conséquences et influence en Europe
• ECMWF/C3S – ENSO impacts (ERA5‑based guidance for Europe)
• AEMET – Informe sobre el estado del clima de España 2021 (Anexo D: ENSO)
• IPMA – Atualização El‑Niño 2026–2027 (Portugal)
• IPMA DataClima – Influência do ENSO em Portugal